Department of Labor issues weekly unemployment insurance claims for week ending April 7 – InsuranceNewsNet

WASHINGTON, April 9th — The US Department of Labor issued the following press release:

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REVIEW OF SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS

Starting with the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Press Release issued Thursday, April 7, 2022, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the initial and ongoing national claims reflects a change in the estimation of the models. Seasonal adjustment factors can be multiplicative or additive. A multiplicative seasonal effect is assumed to be proportional to the level of the series. A sudden large increase in the level of the series will be accompanied by a proportionally large seasonal effect. In contrast, an additive seasonal effect is assumed to be unaffected by the level of the series. In times of relative economic stability, the multiplicative option is generally preferred over the additive option.

However, in the presence of a large level change in a time series, multiplicative seasonal adjustment factors can result in a systematic overfitting or underfitting of the series; in such cases, additive seasonal adjustment factors are preferred, as they tend to track seasonal fluctuations more accurately in the series and have smaller revisions. Before the pandemic, the unemployment insurance claims series used multiplicative models to seasonally adjust claims. From March 2020, Bureau of Labor Statistics The technical staff, who provide the seasonal adjustment factors, specified these series as additive.

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Now that most of the large effects of the pandemic on the UI series have subsided, the seasonal adjustment models are again specified as multiplicative models. Statistical tests show that the series UI should, in normal times, be estimated multiplicatively. While the pandemic period remains within the five-year review period, the UI series will use a hybrid adjustment approach. For the most volatile economic periods of the pandemic, the series will continue to be adjusted additively for the revised series. Before and after these periods, the series will be adjusted multiplicatively. For consistency, all seasonal factors on our website are now displayed as multiplicative where any additive factors have been converted to implied multiplicative factors. Note that in recent weeks, beyond the most volatile period in the series, any change from additive to multiplicative may result in larger-than-usual one-time revisions to seasonally adjusted estimates. If you have further questions about the seasonal adjustment methodology, please refer to the official UI Claims Seasonal Adjustment Factors release page or contact the BLS directly through the Local Area Unemployment Statistics web contact form.

See form here: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20220407

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UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

in the week ending April 2, the anticipated number of seasonally adjusted initial claims was 166,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down to 31,000 from 202,000 to 171,000. The 4-week moving average was 170,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 30,500 from 208,500 to 178,000.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.1 percent for the week ending March 26, unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.2, from 0.9 to 1.1 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted unemployment insurance for the week ending March 26 was 1,523,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised higher at 199,000 from 1,307,000 to 1,506,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,541,250, a decrease of 35,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up to 187,500 from 1,389,000 to 1,576,500.

NOT ADJUSTED DATA

The anticipated number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 193,137 in the week ended April 2, a decrease of 3,674 (or -1.9 percent) from the previous week. Seasonal factors expected an increase of 2,054 (or 1.0 percent) from the previous week. There were 668,346 initial claims in the comparable week in 2021.

The anticipated unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending March 26, unchanged from the previous week. The unadjusted advanced level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,650,788, a decrease of 20,365 (or -1.2 percent) from the previous week. Seasonal factors expected a decrease of 39,144 (or -2.3 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 2.8 percent and the volume was 4,002,030.

The total number of continuous weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending March, 19 was 1,723,024, a decrease of 52,806 from the previous week. 18,387,297 weekly claims for benefits were filed across all programs in the comparable week in 2021.

During the week ending March, 19extended benefits were available in the following state: New Jersey.

Initial claims for UI benefits filed by former federal civilian employees totaled 489 in the week ending March 26, a decrease of 10 from the previous week. There were 338 initial claims filed by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 38 from the previous week.

There were 8,777 continuous weeks claimed filed by former federal civilian employees the week ending March, 19, a decrease of 952 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 4,331, a decrease of 299 from the previous week.

Highest rates of insured unemployment in the week ending March, 19 They were in California (2.4), New Jersey (2.4), Alaska (2.2), Illinois (2.1), Rhode Island (2.1), Massachusetts (2.0), Minnesota (2.0), New York (1.9), and the virgin islands (1.7). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 26 They were in Ohio (+3,580), Michigan (+3,545), California (+3,256), Texas (+2,251), and New York (+761), while the greatest decreases occurred in Kentucky (-2,034), Pennsylvania (-732), Tennessee (-235), Florida (-165), and Connecticut (-138).

See charts and tables here: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20220407

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TECHNICAL NOTES

This news release presents the weekly unemployment insurance (UI) claims reported by each state’s unemployment insurance program offices. These claims can be used to monitor workload volume, evaluate state program operations, and to assess labor market conditions. Initially, states report claims taken directly by the state responsible for benefit payments, regardless of where the claimant filing the claim resided. These are the basis for the anticipated initial claims and continuing claims reported each week. This data comes from ETA 538, Weekly Advance Report of Initial and Continuing Claims. The following week, initial claims and continuing claims are reviewed based on a second report from the states that reflects claimants by state of residence. This data comes from the ETA 539, Extended Benefit Activation Data Report, and Weekly Claims.

A. Initial Claims

An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed person after separation from an employer. The claimant requests a basic eligibility determination for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place that result in activity counts that include the initial claims count. the count of US Initial claims for unemployment insurance are a leading economic indicator because they are an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data that are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility.

B. Continuous Weeks Claimed

A person who has already filed an initial claim and experienced a week of unemployment then files a continuing claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Weekly continuing claims are also called insured unemployment, since continuing claims reflect a good approximation of the current number of insured unemployed workers claiming UI benefits. the count of US continuous weeks claimed is also a good indicator of labor market conditions. While continuing claims are not a leading indicator (they roughly coincide with business cycles at their peaks and lag at cycle troughs), they do provide confirming evidence of the direction of the trend. US economy.

C. Seasonal adjustments and annual reviews

Over the course of a year, weekly changes in initial and continuing claim levels experience regular fluctuations. These fluctuations may be the result of seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, the opening and closing of schools, or other similar events. Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular pattern each year, their influence on the level of a series can be attenuated by adjusting for regular seasonal variation. These settings make it easy to spot trends and cyclical developments. At the beginning of each calendar year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides the Employment and Training Administration (ETA) with a set of seasonal factors to apply to the unadjusted data during that year. Concurrent with the implementation and publication of the new seasonal factors, ETA incorporates revisions to the historical UI claims series caused by unadjusted data updates. If you have further questions about the seasonal adjustment methodology, please refer to the official UI Claims Seasonal Adjustment Factors release page or contact the BLS directly through the Local Area Unemployment Statistics web contact form.

2017_2022_seasonal_factors.txt

2017_2022_seasonal_factors.xlsx

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